In 1956, American geophysicist Marion Hubbert predicted that production of oil from conventional sources would peak in the continental United States between 1965 and 1970, and worldwide within “about half a century” from publication. Even though many people have disputed this theory, the facts are that United States oil production peaked in 1971 and the peak of world oilfield discoveries occurred in 1962.

Hubbert stated that after oil reserves are discovered, oil production at first increases approximately exponentially, as wells are drilled and more efficient facilities are installed. At some point, a peak output is reached, and oil production begins declining until it approximates an exponential decline.

In 1974, Hubbert projected that global oil production would peak in 1995 “if current trends continue”. This probably would have held true, except that in the late 70s and early 80s, oil consumption dropped because of newer energy efficient cars and the shift to electricity and natural gas for heating. The consumption then rebounded to a lower level of growth in the mid 1980s. If his predictions were right, that would push the date for peak oil out about ten years.

In 2004, ASPO predicted that conventional plus unconventional oil production would peak around 2007 supporting this theory.

Another study of the numbers that was just completed shows that we are hitting peak oil now and that from now on, supplies will begin to drop. Because of the laws of supply and demand, a drop in supply with increasing demand will continue to push the prices of oil upwards.

Our economies are dependent on cheap oil to continue operating smoothly and are in danger if we do not do something to curb our demand for oil. So much of our economy is directly or indirectly tied to oil, from the transport of goods to the growing of food. The rising cost of oil will increase the cost of everything else and lower the profit. More of our money will also be going off-shore, further decreasing our buying power. Our economies are dependent on the growth model, thus the risk.

So, what do we do about it? Change starts at home, so look at all of your energy uses. Here are a few ideas to get you started;

• Replace conventional lightbulbs with flourecent bulbs,
• add a programmable thermostat for the furnace,
• turn the thermostat down a couple of degrees in the winter,
• carpool or ride your bike to work,
• walk to the store and get some exercise,
• combine your errands into one trip,
• buy a more fuel efficient car,
• try to buy local produce and support local farmers,

If you have more ideas, share them in the comments. I am interested to hear what other people think. If you want to know more about peak oil, google around a bit, or if check out the book, Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert’s Peak.