I read an interesting article in the Sunday Telegraph today that made me even more pessimistic about the prospects for peace in the Middle East. As most people know, I am a strong opponent of the war in Iraq and I feel strongly that it has, and will continue to, destabilize the region. The article confirmed those fears, but outlines a scenario which is potentially much worse than I had imagined.

I have always believed that the US would eventually pull out of Iraq leaving it in a state of civil war continuing the humanitarian tragedy as thousands upon thousands continue to be killed. I didn’t really consider the role of the neighboring countries though and their allegiances to the various religious/political factions within Iraq.

It is well known that Iran is supporting the majority Iraqi Shias and this is worrying the Sunni-Muslim Saudis. They are afraid that when the US pulls out of Iraq, the country will fall under Iranian control, so to counter that, they are now considering providing anti-US Sunni military leaders with money and weapons.

Both Iran and Saudi Arabia fear a change in the balance of power in the region, so, once the US pulls out of Iraq, and one side starts winning the ensuing civil war, it will probably draw both Iran and Saudia Arabia in to try to maintain the balance in their favor.

If Saudi Arabia and Iran end up facing off over Iraq, Syria will also likely be pulled into the conflict and Turkey will probably take advantage of the situation to solve of their long-standing problems with the Kurds in the north. All in all, it doesn’t leave me with much hope for peace in the Middle East. If you feel otherwise, please comment and tell me why, I could use the hope.